Positive Prospects for Nashville’s nMotion Plan
by Dr. J. Patrick Raines, dean and professor of economics at the Massey College of Business at Belmont University
Having returned from Denver, Colo., with the Williamson County Chamber of Commerce, I am pleased to report that there is evidence that an intelligent mass transit system can benefit regional economies and improve the quality of life for residents of the Middle Tennessee region. Also, these comments benefit from the 2017 release of a new book titled “Sustainable Mass Transit” (SMT), which examines the challenges and opportunities of 20 exemplary urban mass transit initiatives completed in recent years.
Local criticism of the AMP proposal and the emerging nMotion plan oversimplify both the challenges and opportunities for rapid transit solutions in our region. Generally, the claims are:
- Rail transit does not reduce traffic congestion.
- Buses provide better service and reach more places than rail transit systems.
- Trains are more expensive to operate and build.
- Benefits accrue only to merchants and land owners, not riders or the economically disadvantaged.
- Express lanes and dynamic toll systems can reduce congestion better than light rail systems.
Rail transit systems in Honolulu, Denver, Baltimore and Sacramento are examples of transit systems in which ridership substantially increased, or a superior metric for measuring traffic, the roadway congestion index, fell dramatically. The increases in the total transit ridership predicted when the nMotion plan is fully implemented is realistic considering ridership statistics in comparable cities; Denver increased from 4 million riders to 20 million over a 20-year period and the Trax light rail system in Salt Lake City carries 78 percent more riders than initially projected.
Surveys in Denver and several other cities indicate that riders prefer the speed, comfort and connectivity of light rail and bus rapid transit (BRT).
A one-minute reduction for 15,000 daily riders on the Flatiron Flyer BRT between Boulder and Denver saves riders approximately 250 hours per day.
Compared with bus-only cities, large rail cities have a lower transit operating cost per mile ($0.42 versus $0.63), higher per capita ridership and 36 percent fewer traffic fatalities. Agencies managing mass transit have demonstrated numerous examples of sustainable excellence through organizational efficiencies, cost-effective capital projects and rolling stock purchases, and employing technological advances in infrastructure, vehicles and facilities (SMT).
Transit-oriented investment will be significant; two cities are being developed between Boulder and Denver (Westminster and Arista), and 4,000 employees work at Charles Schwab on the south end of the Denver light rail system. Strategic placement of rail systems and federal funding for attainable housing developments have and will have a positive impact on local economies and surrounding property values. Systems to reduce or subsidize the cost of workers’ riding to their place of employment are easy and intuitive to create. The current plan estimates a 231 percent increase in service to Nashville’s low-income population.
There is no doubt that express lanes and dynamic signage will reduce traffic congestion. Both are part of the intermodal transportation components that are a necessary part of all successful rapid transit systems. They are necessary, but never sufficient. However, dynamic tolls can manage traffic flow in real time, and express lanes can reduce travel times for commuters and a bus rapid transit system (BRT). Reduced drive times for commuters will have significant positive economic effects on worker productivity as well as talent acquisition and retention. Nashville, think jobs!
A successful rapid transit system solution will start in Nashville, and it will depend on cooperation, frequent and reliable service and connections between homes, businesses, shopping and entertainment venues. Cooperation between the public and private sectors is imperative, not just for development and rights of way but also for transit funding itself.
An added and often overlooked impact that should be considered is the resulting reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, the decrease in demand for fossil fuels, the benefits of compact development on land and energy consumption and the opportunity for mass transit to lead the way to more-sustainable cities.
Refinements will certainly be made in the nMotion plan, but it can and will be a success with community engagement and regional cooperation. Mayor Megan Barry’s Yes in My Backyard (YIMBY) slogan is the right anthem for getting Nashville nMotion.